Venezuela has closed out one of its most volatile economic years yet, with the official price of the US dollar surging nearly 480% over the past 12 months, underscoring the country’s deepening currency and inflation crisis.

According to figures released by Venezuela’s central bank on Wednesday, the official exchange rate now stands at 301.37 bolívars per dollar, effective until January 2. This compares with just 52.02 bolívars per dollar at the start of 2025, marking a 479.25% increase in one year.

The sharp depreciation comes as the oil-rich nation grapples with soaring inflation, chronic shortages of hard currency, and renewed geopolitical pressure from the United States.

Official vs Black Market: A gap nearing 100%

While the official rate continues to slide, Venezuela’s parallel market tells an even starker story. On the black market, where exchange rates are largely set through crypto-linked trading platforms, the US dollar is changing hands at close to 560 bolívars, creating a gap of roughly 85% to 100% between official and informal rates.

Economists estimate that around 80% of all currency exchanges in Venezuela now occur through these unofficial channels, reflecting how deeply dollarization has penetrated daily economic life.

The widening spread between official and market rates has long distorted prices, wages, and business activity, forcing households and companies to operate in an economy where two parallel currencies effectively coexist.

Inflation spirals as Data goes dark

Private economic analysts warn that inflation could exceed 500% in 2025, reviving memories of Venezuela’s hyperinflation era despite earlier signs of stabilization in recent years.

Official inflation figures, however, remain scarce. The government has not published inflation data since October 2024, leaving businesses and investors to rely on private estimates and market signals.

Even as President Nicolás Maduro has projected economic growth of nearly 9% for 2025, conditions on the ground suggest a different reality: weakening purchasing power, shrinking access to foreign currency, and renewed pressure on public finances.

US Sanctions add fuel to the crisis

The currency collapse is unfolding against the backdrop of escalating tensions between Caracas and Washington.

US President Donald Trump has intensified sanctions on Venezuela, including orders to seize “sanctioned oil vessels”transporting Venezuelan crude. The country has been under a US oil embargo since 2019, forcing it to sell most of its oil exports through informal channels at steep discounts.

Oil remains Venezuela’s primary source of foreign exchange, and restrictions on exports have severely constrained dollar inflows, amplifying pressure on the bolívar and accelerating dollarization across the economy.

An economy increasingly priced in Dollars

To cope with years of runaway inflation, Venezuelans have increasingly turned to the US dollar for everyday transactions, from groceries and rent to salaries and savings.

While dollarization has helped stabilize some prices, it has also exposed deep structural weaknesses, particularly as access to dollars tightens under sanctions and falling oil revenues.

The result is an economy where official policy, informal markets, and digital finance platforms collide, creating volatility that continues to erode confidence in the national currency.

What Comes Next

With inflation accelerating, exchange-rate gaps widening, and geopolitical pressure mounting, Venezuela enters 2026 facing familiar risks:

• Further bolívar depreciation
• Greater reliance on black-market and crypto FX trading
• Rising social pressure as living costs climb

Unless hard-currency inflows recover or sanctions ease, economists warn that exchange-rate instability will remain a defining feature of Venezuela’s economic outlook.

For now, the nearly 480% rise in the dollar price over 12 months stands as a stark reminder that Venezuela’s currency crisis is far from resolved.